Celts vs. Cavs Game 3: Prediction, odds, pick for Sat. 5/11: Will Boston bounce back?

Celtics vs. Cavaliers Odds

Saturday, May 11, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Boston Celtics

Kristaps Porzingis remains out for the Celtics.

Boston's not going to overreact to Game 2. It lost Game 2 to the Heat, came back and trounced them in Miami.

The Celtics will stick with their plan to shoot contested 3s and limit the Cavaliers with minimal help. It puts a lot of pressure on Donovan Mitchell, but Mitchell burned them with it in Game 2.

Boston has basically taken Darius Garland out of the series by keeping Jrue Holiday on him, but it can't figure out Mitchell. The next step might be to have Jayson Tatum take that primary assignment.

The Celtics are vulnerable on the interior, especially without Porzingis, and they know it. Don't be surprised if they collapse a bit more and dare shooters like Max Strus and Isaac Okoro to beat them.

Offensively, the Celtics had a hard time with the Cavaliers, who went to more of a switching scheme. It kept the Cavs in front of them and out of rotation, and Boston wound up taking contested 3s off the dribble.

They'll typically hit those, but if they don't, they completely fall apart. The Celtics are 4-9 straight up and 3-10 against the spread when they make fewer than 15 3s in the last two postseasons.

It's everything to them. They can move the ball quicker and try to drive and kick more in Game 3, but they'll mostly just run it back. They're a team that believes in their formula more than almost any other.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Jarrett Allen is questionable, and very interestingly, Dean Wade has also been upgraded to questionable.

The Cavs have a real opportunity here. If they can steal Game 3 at home and put the pressure on Boston, it moves them one step closer to cracking.

The key is going to be Evan Mobley, who was sensational in Game 2 with 21 points, 10 boards and five assists. He finally looked like the star he was drafted to be.

The Cavaliers finished with a 60-44 advantage in the paint and had a big edge from 3 as well. Their formula needs to start on the offensive side. Attack the basket against a Celtics team with no rim protection — especially with Porzingis out — and make them collapse so you can find shooters.

They need to win this game. They can't let the Celtics go back to thinking Game 2 was a blip. They have to put the fear of God in Boston if they're going to win this series.

Celtics vs Cavaliers

Betting Pick & Prediction

This trend surprised me. Teams that lost Game 2 at home as a favorite and are road favorites in Game 3 are 17-9 SU and 15-11 ATS (58%) since 2003. They just tend to bounce back.

Additionally, top two seeds favored by six or more on the road after Round 1 are 22-8 SU and 16-12-2 ATS (57%).

Teams just bounce back in this spot. If Mobley were a more sure thing, if Garland could find any room to breathe whatsoever, if I thought Wade was coming back healthy and would get minutes, I'd like the Cavs here. I think Cleveland wins one more in this series; I bet Cavs +2.5 on the series win spread after Game 1.

But this isn't the spot. Boston keeps to the formula, knocks down shots, and gets the cover here in Game 3.

Pick: Celtics -8