Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6: Prediction, expert pick, odds for Thu. 5/16

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds

Thursday, May 16, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic took over Game 5 in the third quarter and finished with 40 points and 13 assists on 15-of-22 shooting from the field. It was truly a legacy game for him and the league doesn’t have an answer for him when he has it going like that.

If the Nuggets get that version of Jokic again, they'll advance to the Western Conference Finals for a second straight year. The Nuggets' offensive process was elite in Game 5 as they attempted 47% of their shots at the rim and converted on 73.5% of those looks.

They have been able to consistently generate high quality looks in the half-court since Game 2, which is one of the primary reasons they are on the verge of winning four straight after most media pundits proclaimed them dead following Game 2.

Their half-court offensive rating in Game 5 was 113.3 and they are averaging 116.5 points per 100 possessions over their past 3 games. For reference, the average half-court offensive rating in the playoffs is 96.8 and Boston, the favorite to win it all, is averaging 106.3 points per 100 in the half-court this postseason.

So, the Nuggets are 20 points above the league average and 10 points above the Celtics in the half-court over their past three games.

Additionally, they are doing this against the No. 1-rated defense this season. It honestly feels like we are at the point where Minnesota needs to find a way to outscore Denver in order to win. The Nuggets have multiple answers to whatever the Wolves throw at them on defense, so the Wolves will need to find a way to score 115-120 to extend this series.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Defensively, the Nuggets have been pretty solid over their past few games. Minnesota is averaging 95.8 points per 100 in the half-court over the past three games, a 20-point disparity from Denver’s half-court offense.

Minnesota has been a little bit better in transition, where they are averaging 135.2 points per play in this series. The Wolves should make an effort to beat the Nuggets down the court off of live rebounds and will need to capitalize on Denver's turnovers.

The Wolves also need to prioritize taking care of the ball on offense as they turned the ball over on a 15.2% of their possessions last game. The 2nd quarter was particularly bad as they had nine turnovers and multiple guys — like Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid — got into foul trouble with offensive fouls.

Minnesota simply can’t have quarters with nine turnovers and expect to defeat Denver. Minnesota has to consistently make great decisions in order to beat a Jokic-led team and I don’t know if I can trust this offense to do that without Mike Conley.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Betting Pick & Prediction

I’ll be taking the Nuggets on the moneyline as I truly think they’ve figured out the Wolves. The Wolves' offense isn't reliable enough without Conley and we also saw Towns limp off the court after Game 5. This team, in its current form, doesn’t have enough offense to best the Nuggets and I think they may be spiritually defeated after three straight double-digit losses.

Pick: Nuggets +110