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NHL best bets for Saturday, Nov. 4: Our two favorite plays on a packed day
Saturdays in the NHL are always jam-packed, and today is no different. We've done plenty of passes through the looks, and while we have a lot written down, we're limiting ourselves to just two plays here.
Rather than player props, we turn to a few totals on the ice.
Ottawa over 3.5 goals, including OT (-110 DraftKings)
Ottawa was a team that quickly popped up for both shots and goals today against Tampa Bay. On the road this season, the Lightning are allowing 4.5 goals per game and 34.8 shots per game. That aligns nicely with how the Senators have performed on home ice, averaging 4.0 goals/game and 33.2 shots/game.
As such, bring on the goals! Ottawa has had the Lightning's number over the past few meetings, scoring five, seven and seven in their past three games, including earlier this season.
Cheers to another strong showing for the Sens. I like Brady Tkachuk to get his shots in this one and will also be playing him later in some form.
Buffalo-Toronto over 6.5 goals (-130 DraftKings)
I went in on Buffalo's team total last night and it failed miserably, but it's seeming like a great opportunity for them to chip in a few goals. Fret not, the foundation of this total is what I expect the Maple Leafs to do. We'll get to the goals in a moment, but just as it relates to shots on goals, I expect Toronto to absolutely pummel a Sabres team skating on a back-to-back, and there should be plenty of power-play chances to help jolt the offense.
Then there's the simple team averages which is what got this game on my radar.
Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.
Toronto is averaging 3.5 goals/game at home while allowing 4.25/game, a nice recipe for an over. The Sabres have similar averages in their four road games, averaging 4.25 goals/game and allowing 3.5 more.
Five straight meetings between these two clubs have seen 7+ goals scored, so we'll opt for this over, albeit slightly juiced.
William Nylander is my favorite look to have a big game, for the player prop enthusiasts.
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