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NHL best bets: How to approach Game 1 of Dallas-Vegas

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 5/19/23

With the assistance of overtime, we cashed our favorite bet from Game 1 of Carolina-Florida, and now we turn to the West for one read into how this opening game goes. There comes a moment when you start getting intrigued in so many different players to either score a goal or register a point that there's only one natural pivot to make.

Bring on the goals for Stars-Golden Knights

In general as the Stanley Cup playoffs move on, games get tighter, but for tonight I foresee the floodgates opening to an extent with some scoring on both ends.

And really, I'm not asking for anything crazy, the over is set at just 5.5 goals. Let the record show: in three meetings this season, the under hit every time. So why am I rolling with the over? Thank you so much for the thoughtful question.

Early in the series I do put weight into location data, just like I did all regular season. Until we see how these teams match up and how the matchups are unfolding, it's my most reliable benchmark for research, and considering it worked last night, I'm confidently trusting the numbers I see.

Dallas has played six games on the road this postseason. They're scoring 3.17 goals per game and allowing 4.0, and they've exceeded tonight's 5.5 line in four of those six, including both times they first hit the road in their two previous series.

Vegas has hosted six games thus far, going over 5.5 goals in five of six, including both Game 1s they've had at home. The Golden Knights are averaging 3.5 goals per game at home in these playoffs and allowing 3.33 more.

To me, it's a perfect intersection to go for the over tonight. Do I like Jonathan Marchessault and Roope Hintz to score? Oh yes I do. I may just bet that also, but I'd rather my main focus turns to seeing goals scored and not care who is involved.

Betting: Over 5.5 goals (-103 Barstool/BetRivers)

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